Bitcoin Market Analysis: December 15-21

This week the breakout news was Microsoft and its affects were certainly short lived. Just like PayPal we have a situations where the news sounds good and creates a nice bump, but the near term implications are not very lasting nor critical. We need more companies that are willing to actually embrace Bitcoin and not just as a payment system. Once again this will only lead to additional selling pressure if people do decide to send their bitcoins to Microsoft.

Russia definitely made headlines this past week in two ways. They look serious about penalties to Bitcoin users and that clearly has not had much of an affect as local bitcoins is showing interest is higher than ever. In other news, Russia is announcing an amnesty for all financial capital returning home in a no questions asked policy. That is a great economic chess move if true and if more countries actually did that there might not be a real need for something like Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s greatest advantage is economic freedom and 99% of the world has no idea that economic freedom is what will turn the world around after the next financial crisis, which is definitely coming this decade. It should be the biggest one in our lifetime and Bitcoin will play a major role.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: December 8-14

In the last overview we were slightly bullish though were looking for a pull back into the $350 area. That move finally arrived after virtually 0 volatility for over two weeks. There were a lot of news events during that time, but what everyone is talking about today seems to be the price that Bitcoin Investment Trust paid to win the 48,000 bitcoins at the auction. Chances are, they got them at a premium to the exchange price though probably not as much as most think. One of the reasons why most want to know is that it might create a more realistic base price for a short period of time. It’s the same reason why small investors listen to Warren Buffet even though there is nothing that he does in his investments that remotely apply to 99.9% of traders or investors.

In other news, it looks like there will be a nice year end for many up and coming Bitcoin companies as more and more VC’s are looking to still get in on the 2014 record year. By we should have officially beaten 1995 Internet sums even if we are ignoring inflation for the time being. ChangeTip was the big beneficiary, as they are getting more and more popular among twitter users. As long as the Mining structure is sound this trend should continue into next year, though something to keep an eye on is the fact that for the first time in 2 years the difficulty has dropped as some miners have shut down their machines due to the continuation of depressed prices.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: November 24-30

Last Week’s call for Bitcoin to continue on its Bullish path was probably made at the worst possible time. Everything was in place for the $370-375 zone to be the perfect level of support and we had bounced from that level in a nice looking way. It now looks like the support has been established in the $340 area so as long as we can hold that, we can still reach our targets mentioned last week in the near future.

It is starting to get a little discouraging for people on the street about Bitcoin and especially it’s price. Yes there are plenty of people that are still trying to make something from all these start-ups especially in the 2.0 space, but the game is becoming for those with large VC funding and traders that have been moving the market lately. To those that might say there was genuine demand for bitcoins earlier this month driving the price from $370 all the way to $450, it is easily disproven with the fact that it was trading for half the week at prices under that.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: November 17-23

Bitcoin’s volatility was the news this past week. Last week’s conclusion was pretty clear in stating that it was expected for the 50-day SMA to put a pause in this rebound and prices needed to pull back. Traders however had other ideas and drove the market straight past the $375 resistance reaching a high just shy of the 200-day SMA at $450 or so before pulling back to the start of the breakout which was the $370-375 zone.

This price action is very indicative of a market driven completely by traders. If there were any fundamental changes in Bitcoin’s standing, the price would not have fallen as fast as it went up on no news. In fact it was pointed out in another article how this entire up move was pre-ran in the Futures markets like 796 and most likely OKCoin and Huobi. That means that enough people knew that this move was coming that plenty of long contracts were initiated in preparation. The profits from those long contracts were not fully realized due to the fact that winner get taxed on any counterparty losses suffered by the exchange when they are not able to liquidate Margin Called positions on time. So for example BitVC (Huobi) had to remove 45% from the winners on their November 14 contact.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: November 10-16

In last week’s update, we turned bearish as the price was starting turn down after what looked like a perfect technical reversal a the 50 SMA at the $330 price mark. The expectation was that prices would continue down to the $305-308 zone. That view clearly did not pan out as the price not only broke the 50 SMA on the short-term chart but also the 200 SMA a few days later. The two moving averages have now crossed signaling that we might see additional bullish momentum.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: Week October 27-November 2

In last week’s update, the expectation was for new market high to carry the momentum from the yearly lows of $275, but the $400 resistance zone proved to be too much. We kept waiting for a noticeable higher low the last few weeks and now that we have one, it might be a little to much to handle at this stage and has caused some loss in confidence.

The general view on the street right now a little down. Sure there are plenty of people looking to buy hundreds of bitcoins for cash, but the average person is still not convinced that this will be the future and with the decline now going on for over 9 months, it’s getting harder and harder to convince your neighbors to take a plunge. Exchanges are also taking a hit, first with MinPal going down and now Cryptsy facing a lawsuit. Bitstamp has just announced that it will confiscate unverified accounts, which is a very disappointing sign for the industry. The upcoming finalization of the BitLicense should cause some movement though it’s impossible to say which way. It all depends how it will be perceived on Wall Street because no mater what they do, the small bitcoin facilitators will get crushed by regulatory and compliance fees.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: Week October 20-26

In last week’s update we were expecting for this week to show us a higher low and a higher high in order to answer the question whether $275 low is here to stay. The values theorized like a pull back to $340 did not perfectly materialized but the overall trend was nailed on the money.  We had consolidation in the $350’s a higher high at $415 then a pull back low to $370 and are now sitting right at $380-400 area just below resistance getting ready for another breakout.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: Week October 13-19

In last weeks update we were expecting a small rebound once the sell wall at $300 by the Bearwhale was finally eliminated. This turned out to be the perfect scenario and there were two attempts at a new high toping out in the mid $390’s. The big question now is weather the $275 mark is the low for the year or perhaps for a generation?

This question is still difficult to answer. It looks like there is technical precedence for this to be a major turning point, but the fundamental problems that bitcoin has been going through lately have not been resolved. It is still just as difficult to convince friends and family why they should go out of their way and convert their fiat money into bitcoins. Just because more and more places are accepting bitcoins does not mean the average person has reason to go out and purchase some. We will have to wait and see what kind of confidence this big move from $275 to $400 can instills in people. Unless noticed otherwise consider this move to be strictly caused by traders but if momentum and trend has shifted, just go with the flow.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: Week October 6-12

The downward pressures continue to be a problem as mentioned in last week’s post. The expectation was for a little rebound before lower prices continue to emerge.  The rebound however, was very minor and lower prices set in fairly quickly.

The big news, which even made it into the New York Times was the big sell wall of around 30K bitcoin that were responsible for driving down the price. The hunt was on to find this mystery seller and whether it would one day be public knowledge or not, the big question now is: Do we need to do anything about Bitcoin Manipulation?